Sunday, November 12, 2017

Emirates Finally Pulls the Trigger: Orders 40 x 787-10 Dreamliners

Emirates Photo




In what many observers are characterizing as "surprising" Emirates Airlines order 40 787-10 Dreamliners to open the 2017 Dubai Air Show.  With this order, Emirates join the other two "ME" majors (Etihad, Qatar Airways) in ordering the 787 but the other major airlines in the region has also ordered the the 787 including: Saudi Arabian Airlines, Turkish Airlines, Royal Jordanian, El Al Airlines, Gulf Airlines, Oman Air, and the Republic of Iraqi (Iraqi Airways) with a possible EgyptAir order announcement coming later in the air show.

The order is for 40 787-10 and 60 options for any model of the 787.  What is not clear is if this is a firm order or not as industry analyst Saj Ahmad (see his article here) has reported that this is not firm while Boeing's press release says nothing about the status of the order and Emirates Tweet (see above) indicates that this is a firm order. 

There is no other way to view this order but as a huge victory for Boeing and a repudiation of Airbus' product strategy after Emirates ordered, then cancelled an order for 70 A350-1000.  Since that cancellation, Emirates has gone on to order 150 larger 777-9s and now the 787-10.  The airlines, at this time, is still negotiating for a possible 25 x A380 order but this order will most likely be viewed as replacement of the early A380s that were delivered instead of being used for expansion.  Emirates has indicated that both the 777-9 and 787s will be used for both replacement and expansion of their fleet and business.

With this potential 100 aircraft order for the 787 and the 150 777 order, it appears that Emirates is banking its future on Boeing products and in buying (potentially) aircraft from the 787-9 to the 777-9 they are covering a wide array of range and capacities that this product line offers.

Boeing wasn't done though and announced an order with Azerbaijan Airlines for 5 more 787-8 and 2 unidentified freighters.  I believe that these 5 787-8s was the unidentified order for 5 787s that Boeing posted last Thursday on their weekly orders.  By Thursday we should know if Emirates' order is firm or not.

1 comment:

Paul Clark said...

Hi Uresh

I suspect that the 40x Emirates order will be treated as firm by Boeing, but as you say we will know when the weekly update comes out. Where I am more confused is on the status of Aercap's orders. This is highlighted by the Egyptair announcement that they are obtaining 6x 789 through an existing Aercap order. Boeing's Press Release says that Aercap currently has "more than 115" 787 family aircraft delivered or on order. Aercap's own Press Release, and they should know, quotes 116 aircraft. Both figures well exceed the 104 currently shown in your spreadsheets - and indeed in mine! I suspect the answer is in sale/leaseback arrangements agreed between airlines and Aercap post order by the airline and pre-delivery, which have not been publicised, but again only time will tell. Paul