Saturday, July 29, 2017

787 July 2017 Update


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Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett161
To be assembled in Charleston124
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Pre-Flight Prep12
Production Testing3
Non Customer Flight Tests4
Ready for Delivery1
Donation3
Delivered577
TOTAL902

Boeing's 787 deliveries for July came in a 12 aircraft (2 x 787-8 and 10 x 787-9).  For the year Boeing has delivered 77 Dreamliners (18 x 787-8 and 59 x 787-9) and 577 airplanes since program deliveries began in September 2011 (342 x 787-8 and 235 x 787-9).

Notable deliveries included ANA's 60th 787 and LOT Polish Airlines last 787-8 that they had on order.  They are expected to take several 787-9 on lease from a couple different lessors.



All in all a decent month for 787 deliveries as well as 787 production as Boeing rolled out 12 787s while starting assembly on 13 airplanes.  of the 13 airplanes that started final assembly in July, 5 were rolled out before month end.  Everett is averaging about 17 days for assembly while Charleston is around 22 days. The only notable 787s that was rolled out is the first 787-9 for Thai International Airways.  They should be taking that aircraft leased from AerCap around mid September.  The other is Air India's penultimate 787-8 which should deliver around middle to late August.

787-10 testing continued during July as the three aircraft test fleet flew over 90 hours in July.  The total accumulated flight hours stands at over 460 after four full months of testing.  Boeing will start final assembly on the first production 787-10 in late August or early September. This aircraft ZC003 (LN 622) will eventually be delivered to Singapore Airlines and will probably be used for functionality and reliability (F & R) testing towards the end of the year.

Earlier this week Boeing released their 2Q2017 financial results.  No real new news in terms of the prospects of increasing the rate on the 787 to 14/month from the current 12.  There are still numerous sales campaign on going that would hopefully lead to an increase in rate in the next 2 or 3 years.  Boeing also reported that deferred production cost dropped by a huge $530 million to about $26.5 billion. across the unfulfilled orders of about 700 airplanes that equates to about $37.8 million per airplane which Boeing needs to recoup in order to drive that deferred production cost balance to 0.  Some analysts believe that this is a very difficult task to accomplish and they may have to increase the accounting block in order to book reasonable amount of profit after the deferred production costs.

Lastly, with regards to sales, Saj Ahmad of Strategic Aero Research reported that the sale of the 787 to Emirates is a "done deal" and that this order will be formally announced at the Dubai Air Show in November.  While there isn't any numbers available, the order is believed to be for a mix of 787-9 and 787-10.  This potential order certainly can help Boeing with the decision to move to 14/month. Another potential order is from Turkish Airlines (I know I sounded that bell before).  This time Turkish may be close to wet leasing up to 4 787-9s from Etihad Airways.  There is also a rumor that the wet lease would be in addition to a firm order of 787s direct from Boeing.  Turkish and Etihad are still trying to work out the details.

787 Tables

7 comments:

Jim Schorie said...

Do you have any insight as to why American LN587 is doing so many test flights?

Uresh said...

They're conducting some mandatory flight testing possibly connected with 787-10 flight tests

Paul Clark said...

Hi Uresh

On 8/8 Boeing put out a press release about their latest order from ALC. It focussed on 737MAX, but also noted 2 new 789 orders - saying " The leasing company has now ordered a total of 49 Dreamliners.". Before this order I had ALC as 21 B787-9 (3 delivered) + 25 B787-10 totalling 46 (as I suspect you did). But 46 + 2 = 48, so any idea how this reconciles?? It's got me beat at the moment!

Paul

Uresh said...

It's probably a typo in the press release.

Uresh said...

It's probably a typo in the press release unless one of the unidentified orders is for ALC.

Paul Clark said...

Hi Uresh

I suspect an unallocated order, or one thought to be an outright purchase by a named airline that was subsequently assigned, to give a total of 49. I was searching through ALC's published results for clues to this when I noticed that their B789 delivery totals up to 6/30/17 are 5, made up of 3 before 12/31/16, and one in the each of the first two quarters of 2017. The 2016 deliveries were 2 x Hainan and 1 x Aeromexico per your spreadsheets. The 1st quarter 2017 one is then C-FRSO (l/n 536) for Air Canada delivered on 3/23/17 and N438AM (l/n 541) for Aeromexico delivered on 4/6/17. Your spreadsheet of delivered a/c shows these last two as being both owned and operated by the airlines.

Paul

Geoff said...

Could it have to do with Kenyan and a lease to Oman? http://atwonline.com/leasing/oman-air-wet-leases-787-8s-kenya-airways

It starts to get messy with leases to each other.