Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Paris Air Show 2017 - Day 3

With day 3 in the books, Boeing is starting to wind down after a very busy and productive Paris Air Show.  They added more conversions (and a few new orders) to the 737 MAX 10 book and barring a huge surprise mega order for Airbus, Boeing should handily win the order race at this year's air show.

Even as this show was about narrowbody aircraft orders Boeing still outshone airbus in widebody orders with 56 orders (both MoU and firm).  Most of these were for the 787 (50) while the 777 got 6 more firm orders which aids in the transition between the 777NG and 777X.  The 787 had very decent showing. I am, however, still waiting for Garuda Indonesia to firm up the 30 787s they order at Paris 2 years ago.  Somehow I shouldn't hold my breathe on that one. 

There's one more day to go so we'll see how Boeing does and if there are any more 787 orders to be had.  NExt week it's be back to the blogs regularly schedule programming.

Boeing

AerCap - 30 x 787-9 (firm)

Air Lease Corp. - 5 x 737 MAX 7 (MoU); 7 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

Avalon - 75 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 50 x 737 MAX 8 (options)

Aviation Capital Group - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

Azerbaijan Airlines - 4 x 787-8 (firm)

Blue Air - 6 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

BOC Aviation - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

China Aircraft Leasing Group - 35 x 737 MAX 8; 5 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

CDB Aviation Lease Finance - 42 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 10 x 737 MAX 10 (including 6 conversions from 737 MAX 8 (4 MoU); 8 x 787-9 (MoU)

Copa - 15 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 737 MAX 8)

Donghai Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 10 x 737 MAX 8)

El Al Airlines - 2 x 787-8, 1 x 787-9 (firm)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 2 x 777F (firm)

GECAS - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 20 737 MAX 8 orders - firm)

Japan Investment Advisor - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

Lion Air - 50 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

Malaysia Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 737 MAX 8)

Mauritania Airlines - 1 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Monarch - 15 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Norwegian - 2 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Okay Airways - 7 x 737 MAX 8 (firm); 8 x 737 MAX 10 (firm); 5 x 787-9 (MoU)

Qatar Airways - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (firm) + 40 x 737 MAX 8 options

RyanAir - 10 x 737 MAX 200 (firm)

SpiceJet - 40 x 737 MAX 10 (20 new (MoU), 20 conversions)

Tibet Financial Leasing - 20 x 737 MAX (8/10) (MoU)

TUI Group - 18 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 18 737 MAX 8 orders)

United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 737 MAX 8); 4 x 777-300ER (firm)

Xiamen Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)


Airbus

Air Lease Corp. - 12 x A321neo (firm)

CBD Aviation Lease Finance - 30 x A320neo; 15 x A321neo (conversion)

Delta Air Lines - 10 x A321 (firm)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x A350-900 (firm)

GECAS - 100 x A320neo/A321neo (firm)

Hi Fly - 2 x A330-200 (firm)

Viva Air - 15 x A320; 35 x A320neo (MoU)

Wizz Air - 10 x A321 (firm)


ATR

Air Senegal - 2 x ATR72-600 (firm)

Tianju - 10 x ATR42-600 (MoU)

Xuzhou Hantong - 3 x ATR42-600 (MoU)


Bombardier

Ethiopian Airlines - 5 x Q400 (MoU)

PAL Express - 7 x Q400 (firm)

SpiceJet - 25 x Q400 (MoU); 25 x A400 options


Embraer

Belavia - 1 x E175 (firm); 1 x E190 (firm)

Fuji Dream Airlines - 3 x E-175 (firm)

J-Air - 1 x E190 (firm)

KLM cityhopper - 2 x E190 (firm)

Unidentified Customer 1 - 20 x E190-E2 (MoU)

Unidentified Customer 2 - 10 x E195-E2 (firm); 10 x E190-E2 options

Paris Air Show 2017 - Day 2

Boeing had a another great day with orders and conversions for the 737 MAX 10 but a good number of orders for the MAX  8 also were announced.  The big conversion was United conversion of 100 737 MAX 8 to the MAX 10 plus adding a firm order for 4 more 777-300ER.

As far as the 787 order activity, Azerbaijan Airlines committed to 4 more 787-8s.  I believe that this maybe an unidentified order for 4 x 787-8s that Boeing booked earlier this year.  Okay Airways signed an MoU for 5 787-9s.  All told the 787 took in 47 orders announced at Le Bourget.

The big story continues to be Boeing order dominance over Airbus thus far at Paris especially with the 737 bringing in a pretty good haul vs. the A320.  However, Airbus may have a few more orders to announce in the last two days of the show.

Lastly, ZC001 flew back to Boeing Field today to continue certification flight test activities.


Boeing

AerCap - 30 x 787-9 (firm)

ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)


Avalon - 75 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 50 x 737 MAX 8 (options)

Aviation Capital Group - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

Azerbaijan Airlines - 4 x 787-8 (firm)

Blue Air - 6 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)


BOC Aviation - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

China Aircraft Leasing Group - 35 x 737 MAX 8; 5 x 737 MAX 10 (firm)

CDB Aviation Lease Finance - 42 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 10 x 737 MAX 10 (including 6 conversions from 737 MAX 8 (4 MoU); 8 x 787-9 (MoU)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 2 x 777F (firm)


GECAS - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 20 737 MAX 8 orders - firm)

Japan Investment Advisor - 10 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

Lion Air - 50 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

Monarch - 15 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)


Norwegian - 2 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Okay Airways - 7 x 737 MAX 8 (firm); 8 x 737 MAX 10 (firm); 5 x 787-9 (MoU)


Qatar Airways - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (firm) + 40 x 737 MAX 8 options

RyanAir - 10 x 737 MAX 200 (firm)

SpiceJet - 40 x 737 MAX 10 (20 new (MoU), 20 conversions)

Tibet Financial Leasing - 20 x 737 MAX (8/10) (MoU)

TUI Group - 18 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 18 737 MAX 8 orders)


United Airlines - 100 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion from 737 MAX 8); 4 x 777-300ER (firm)

Airbus

Air Lease Corp. - 12 x A321neo (firm)

CBD Aviation Lease Finance - 30 x A320neo; 15 x A321neo (conversion)

Delta Air Lines - 10 x A321 (firm)

Ethiopian Airlines - 10 x A350-900 (firm)


GECAS - 100 x A320neo/A321neo (firm)

Viva Air - 15 x A320; 35 x A320neo (MoU)

ATR

Air Senegal - 2 x ATR72-600 (firm)

Tianju - 10 x ATR42-600 (MoU)


Xuzhou Jantong - 3 x ATR42-600 (MoU)

Bombardier

Ethiopian Airlines - 5 x Q400 (MoU)

PAL Express - 7 x Q400 (firm)

SpiceJet - 25 x Q400 (MoU); 25 x A400 options

Embraer


Belavia - 1 x E175 (firm); 1 x E190 (firm)

Fuji Dream Airlines - 3 x E-175 (firm)

J-Air - 1 x E190 (firm)

KLM cityhopper - 2 x E190 (firm)

Unidentified Customer 1 - 20 x E190-E2 (MoU)

Unidentified Customer 2 - 10 x E195-E2 (firm); 10 x E190-E2 options

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Paris Air Show 2017 - Day 1

The 1st day of the 2017 Paris Air Show is in the books and Boeing did well.  For starters they got a nice order of 30 firm 787-9s from AerCap making them the largest owner of 787 when all the aircraft are delivered at 122 (this includes sale-leaseback transactions).  Boeing also got an MoU from CDB Aviation Lease Finance for 8 787-9s.  The big story was narrowbody orders with Boeing announcing the launch of the largest member of the 737 MAX series, the 737 MAX 10 which would seat up to 230 passengers and a range (with out auxiliary fuel tanks) of up to 5,000 miles.  Boeing expects about 240 orders from 10+ customers during the air show.  Many of these orders are conversions of existing 737 MAX orders to the larger model.

Airbus picked up a large order from GECAS for 100 A320neos (A320 and A321).  Boeing accounted for the only widebody order to come on day 1 of the airshow but I expect that Airbus will pick up an order for the A350 before the end of the show.  The airshow is really going to be a battle of the narrowbodies this year.

Lastly, ZC002 flew to Victorville to continue flight testing there.  Boeing said that they have completed about 30% of the 787-10 flight test program.  If so then I wonder if Boeing can have the aircraft certified by the end of the year?

Boeing

AerCap - 30 x 787-9 (firm)

ALAFCO - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU)

BOC Aviation - 10 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

CDB Aviation Lease Finance - 42 x 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 10 x 737 MAX 10 including 6 conversions from 737 MAX 8 (MoU); 8 x 787-9 (MoU)

GECAS - 20 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 20 737 MAX 8 orders - firm)

Lion Air - 50 x 737 MAX 10 (MoU)

Monarch - 15 x 737 MAX 8 (firm)

Qatar Airways - 20 x 737 MAX 8 (firm) + 40 x 737 MAX 8 options

SpiceJet - 40 x 737 MAX 10 (20 new (MoU), 20 conversions)

Tibet Financial Leasing - 20 x 737 MAX (8/10) (MoU)

TUI Group - 18 x 737 MAX 10 (conversion of 18 737 MAX 8 orders)

Airbus

Air Lease Corp. - 12 x A321neo (firm)

GECAS - 100 x A320neo/A321neo (firm)

ATR

Tianju - 10 x ATR42-600 (MoU)
Xuzhou Jantong - 3 x ATR42-600 (MoU)

Bombardier

APL Express - 7 x Q400 (MoU)

Sunday, June 18, 2017

787 Month End Report for May 2017 and June 2017 Mid Month Report


-->
Number
Testing Complete3
To be assembled in Everett174
To be assembled in Charleston134
Parts Arriving6
Undergoing final assembly8
Storage0
Storage/Change Incorporation and Re-Work0
Change Incorporation and Re-Work1
Pre-Flight Prep10
Production Testing4
Non Customer Flight Tests3
Ready for Delivery3
Donation3
Delivered553
TOTAL902

Sorry for the delay in posting the May report but since we're at the middle of June I'm combining the posts into one for this month.

Boeing had a decent May performance with the delivery of 12 787s including one early build 787-8. Boeing delivered 9 787-9s and 3 787-8s and had bought the total deliveries as of the end of May to 553.  Year to date deliveries to the end of May stands at 53.  Through the first half of June Boeing delivered an additional 6 787s (1 787-8 and 5 787-9s).  Looking ahead to deliveries Boeing should deliver 11 787s this month (3 x 787-8 and 8 x 787-9s).  This total will include the last early build 787-8 for Ethiopian Airlines as well as a 787-9 that is being bought by the Saudi Ministry of Finance for use by Saudi Arabian Airlines.  This aircraft's delivery has been inexplicably delayed and another 787-9 has been delivered but has not flown to Saudi Arabia and indeed continues to sit at Charleston waiting to undertake its delivery flight.  The strange thing about this whole saga is that Saudi Arabian and the Saudi Ministry of Finance continued to take delivery of 777s.  And Saudi Arabian Airlines took delivery of direct purchased 787-9s.

All told Boeing would have delivered 64 787s through the first half of 2017 (16 x 787-8 and 48 x 787-9s).  This puts them under the current production pace of 12 per month.  This is undoubtedly due to the introduction of the 787-10 flight test aircraft production into the final assembly process thus reducing the number of 787s that Charleston can produce despite shifting some assembly of production standard 787s to Everett.  This total also includes 2 early build deliveries so the actual delivery total of current production aircraft is 62, about 10 lower than what it should be.  For the 2nd quarter Boeing will probably deliver 32 787s (6 x 787-8s and 26 x 787-9s).  Of course I'll have the final numbers during the first week of July but it appears that this is what the final tally will be.

In terms of production, Boeing appears to have restored 787 production to what is was prior to the start of 787-10 assembly.  I anticipate that Boeing should start final assembly on 12 787s while rolling out 12 aircraft in June.  The split should also be returned to what it was - 7 built at Everett and 5 in Charleston.  So far in June Everett has started final assembly on 4 airplanes and rolled out 3 while Charleston started work on 3 and rolled out a further 3.

On 787-10 testing, Boeing has added the final 2 787-10 flight test airplanes to the testing program.  ZC036 (LN548, N548ZC) flew on May 2, 2017 and has been flying regular test flight since June 1st.  ZC002 flew on June 8th and has been conducting multiple short duration flights out of Charleston and has not yet left for Boeing Field where Boeing's flight test team is headquartered.  Thus far the 787-10 flight test program has accumulated over 268 flight test hours spread across 108 flights.  Currently ZC001 (LN528, N528ZC) is on static display at the Paris Air Show (unfortunately not flying a 787 display like last year at Farnborough) and should be there until at least Thursday.  The fact that Boeing sent the 787-10 to Le Bourget instead of flying test flights means that the flight test program looks to be on schedule though I'm hoping that Boeing will give more clarity on 787-10 testing progress during the next couple of days or in late July when they have the 2nd quarter conference call.

One programming note, I will be putting up a daily posting of the commercial aircraft orders at the Paris Air Show as well as commentary during the week.  It does appear that this will not be a big week for the 787 (or widebody aircraft in general) but it looks like Boeing will announce the launch of the 737-10 Max tomorrow.  This will probably be the highlight of the show though we'll see if there are any surprises this year.  Look out for my daily posting starting tomorrow.  As always you can check out the 787 spreadsheets (link below) to see the latest on the 787 deliveries, firing order, production and 787-10 testing.