Friday, May 23, 2014

787 Production Update - May 2014

Boeing is progressing well to deliver 10 787s this month.  Today (May 23rd), Boeing delivered Air India's 14th Dreamliner, moving them more than half way to completing the carriers 27 aircraft order.  This is also probably one of the last early build airplanes that will be delivered for a few months (ZA232, LN 28, VT-ANC). They have delivered 5 787s thus far in May.

Rumor has it that Boeing will be looking to deliver anywhere from 2 to 4 more early build 787s including one to Korean Air.  Late last year, Korean Air placed an order for a single 787-8, which is unusual as they have an order for 10 787-9.  This order was for a single early build 787-8.  Why they bought only one is still a mystery given their extensive route network.  It is entirely possible that this aircraft will be solely used on Korean's domestic network.

For the rest of month, Boeing should be able to deliver 5 more this month. I had previously mentioned that ANA should get one delivered this month but now it will be delivered in June. This will also include the first 787-9 delivered to Air New Zealand on June 30th.

Boeing should deliver to Air India, Ethiopian, British Airways, Norwegian (ILFC), and Hainan.  Next month should see the same number of deliveries as this month.  It appears that Boeing will be looking to try to deliver more than the 110 787s that they have stated in their guidance.the number could be closer 120 but it will all depend on production execution.  Additionally 12 of these aircraft should be 787-9.

Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 






Thursday, May 22, 2014

Boeing talks 787 during Investors Conference

During yesterday's Investor's Day conference, Boeing addressed the 787 and the ongoing issues still facing that program.  While the tone was upbeat, the theme was risk and cost reduction throughout the 787 program. Boeing stated that they are continuing to de-risk the 787 program because of the maturity and stabilization of the production system.  However, my concern with that it is not only the stabilization of the production system that needs to occur but improvement in build quality of the 787.  Currently it appears that it takes Boeing about 100 to 110 days from the start of final assembly to delivery of the 787 though there are outliers both under 100 days and over 110 days.  While I do not have any comparable numbers to another program like the 777 it is, without a doubt, crucial that this metric is going to be key to improving efficiencies, de-risking the program and improving margins that Boeing is looking to accomplish with the 787.  Boeing CFO, Greg Smith, stated that the 787-8 has improved unit cost by 15% over the last one year and final assembly flow time improved by 10% during the same period.  The 787-9 has seen both unit cost and flow time improve by 30% since the first unit entered final assembly last year.  So it does appear the final assembly flow time is coming down but again build quality is still going to be important going forward and Boeing has not addressed.


During the conference Jim McNerney addressed the need to do a 757 replacement and he gave a clear indication that the replacement will not be a clean sheet design but a using one of the current platforms that Boeing has designing a derivative to fulfill that need.  He did specifically mention the 787 as one of the those platforms (in addition to the 737).


Boeing is also looking to leverage the highly successful development of the 787-9 for the 787-10.  Approximately 90% of the 787-10 will share commonality with the 787-9 thus greatly reducing the development cost of that aircraft.


In terms of service reliability, Boeing states that they are hitting around 98 to 98.5 but want to be well into the 99% range (99.5%) but are not there yet.  They haven't stated on how they're going to get there and the reliability rate really in unchanged from the last reported rate which Boeing gave during their 1st quarter earning report.


On the production front, Boeing is about to increase the rate at Charleston from 2/month to 3/month.  This rate break should occur around early to mid July and we would also see a commensurate reduction in the rate at Everett from 8/month to 7/month.  Boeing is confident that they can now do this as the production system is stable despite the issues with the mid-body fuselage build in 88-20.


Charleston will also start assembling the 787-9 starting around November of December for delivery in the first quarter of 2015.  As for the remainder of the year see my spreadsheets for the 2014 78 delivery projections.  I'm still agreeing with Boeing's guidance for 110.  I believe 11 of these will be 787-9s.


Lastly, it appears that Boeing may have completed F&R/ETOPs testing for the Rolls Royce powered 787-9.  ZA197 (LN 146, JA830A) flew back to Everett last night and it may have to go through a short period of re-work before being delivered to ANA.  Air New Zealand should get the first one around late June to early July with United expected to receive their first 787-9 in mid to late July.  787-9 flights have slowed noticeably in the last week so I believe that Boeing is close to if not finished with flight testing.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries



 






Monday, May 19, 2014

May 787 deliveries still slow half way through the month

With less than 2 weeks remaining in the month, Boeing has delivered only 3 787s to customers including the 1st to Air Canada.  The total seems anemic but Boeing has been known to finish the month strong by delivering 78s in the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  I don't think this month will be an exception but the company won't be able to deliver 12 aircraft that I predicted earlier.  I do see them delivering 10 in May including the ones that have already been delivered.

Here's my revised delivery projections:

Air India - 2 (ZA232, ZA244)
ANA - 1 (ZA136)
British Airways - 1 (ZA455)
Ethiopian Airlines - 1 (ZA265)
Hainan Airlines - 1 (ZA437)
ILFC/Norwegian - 1 (ZA579)

This number is still 1 short (actually .5 airplanes short) of what Boeing needs to deliver for the remainder of the year if they need to meet their goal of 110 787 deliveries.

While there has been a number of B-1 flights earlier this month, Boeing still has to increase the tempo in order to prepare for June deliveries.

To date Boeing has delivered 143 total 787s, 29 in 2014 and 3 thus far in May.

Lastly, ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) flew back to Everett today from Boeing Field.  It seems that he flight testing it was conducting to certify software changes on a production standard aircraft is complete.  The aircraft will probably be cleaned up and prepared for customer test flights be fore being delivered to Hainan.
Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries

 






Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Enhancements to the 787 spreadsheet

In order to enhance the information that  I present on my spreadsheet, I'm attempting to track the certain metrics to help understand how the 787 program is doing.  It all has to do with time and the amount of it that the 787 spends on being assembled, tested and finally delivered to customers.  I'm tracking the time the aircraft spends in final assembly, the time it spends in pre-flight and the amount of time in production flight tests.

Unfortunately I don't have all the information that I need for all the aircraft particularly the dates that the aircraft loads into final assembly and the date that the aircraft exits final assembly.  If there was traveled work or time needed for change incorporation, that is lumped into the pre-flight time....it's easier that way instead of trying to track when each airframe is where at a particular point in time.

If anyone has any information they can share, it is appreciated.  Please check out the spreadsheet below and you'll see which information I am missing.

Full 787 List

 

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Boeing delivers Air Canada's 1st 787

Boeing has made contractual delivery of Air Canada's first 787-8 yesterday.  The aircraft ZA610 (LN 160, C-GHPQ) will remain at Everett until May 18th when it will fly to Air Canada's base at Toronto's Pearson International Airport.
Air Canada has two more 787s that have been assembled though it appears that one of them was damaged in a forklift incident during seat loading at the EMC.  This aircraft, ZA612 (LN 174, C-GHPU) is still at the EMC though it is outside on the ramp.  ZA611 (LN 170, C-GHPT) is still on the Boeing Everett Flightline awaiting its B-1 flight.


Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries






 






Thursday, May 8, 2014

Boeing ends April with strong 787 deliveries but still behind planned delivery pace


What was appearing to be an anemic month for 787 deliveries was actually a strong one for the aircraft program.  I was expecting about 5 to  deliveries but Boeing finished strong with 8 deliveries, 5 on the last day of the month.  That is the good news, the bad news is that to keep pace for 110 deliveries in 2014, Boeing needed to have delivered 37 787s in the first 4 months of the year.  They have delivered 26 through April 30th. In order to hit the 110 delivery mark, Boeing will have to average 10.5 deliveries per month for the remainder of the year.  Certainly this is an attainable goal but the pace thus far hasn't really looked promising. There are a number of 787s at both Everett and Charleston that have been waiting, patiently for their B-1 flight.  Thus far there has been only 2 B-1 flights though it is early in the month.  However to keep pace with 10.5 deliveries per month, Boeing does need to conduct far more B-1 flights and get these aircraft into production flight testing.


A bit of good news is that it appears that build quality is improving as there are far fewer test flights that need to be conducted (including customer flights) before the planes are formally delivered.  In April, of the 8 planes that were delivered 6 airplanes required an average of 3.5 flights before they were delivered.  I purposely excluded the two Qatar deliveries as they are considered outliers compared to the rest of the customer base.  This certainly bodes well for the 787 delivery rate if Boeing can keep the build quality high and thus get the aircraft into customer's hands faster.


For deliveries in May, Boeing has already delivered one 787 to Ethiopian, the airlines' 6th Dreamliner.  I can see the deliveries shaking out as follows:




Air Canada - 2
Air India - 2
ANA - 1
British Airways - 2
Ethiopian - 2 (1 delivered already)
Hainan - 1
ILFC/Norwegian - 1
QANTAS (Jetstar) - 1




Of course, many of there deliveries are predicated on several of these aircraft starting the flight test program soon (there's only 23 days left in this month).  Already, a British Airways' 787 (ZA454, LN 173, G-ZBJE) has conducted (or is conducting at press time) its C-1 flight. The next one week will help further understand what delivery rate Boeing will achieve this month.




A Word About the 787-9


Boeing continues to execute well on the 787-9 flight test and certification program.  Last month Boeing started F&R and ETOPs testing on a production 787-9 eventually destined for ANA.  ZB197 has been flying regularly in order to have certification ready by next month and delivery of Air New Zealand's for 787-9 to be made around mid July.  Word is that because of Boeing strict disciplined approach to designing and testing this aircraft, that delivery should be made on time.  Boeing will also probably fly ZB167 (LN 181, N19951) which will conduct the same F&R/ETOPs testing though on the GE engines.  This aircraft is currently in paint and should fly by the end of this month to support 1st delivery of the GEnx-1B powered 787-9 later this year.  It is rumored that ZB167 should deliver to United in July as well.




Production


As stated in my previous post, Boeing looks to be putting the Mitsubishi wing issues behind it as at this point should not be a show stopper for deliveries.  Great progress was also made on reducing the travelled work from the Charleston mid-body fuselage plant (88-20) to point that there are no more than 150 minor JBS (jobs behind schedule) that need to be completed on the 787s coming out of final assembly.  To underscore this point, Boeing is doesn't appear to be sending 787s coming off the two lines in Everett to the EMC but instead are going to the 40-51 ramp where the remaining JBS are completed and then the aircraft is taken to paint and then to the flightline where it will be prepared to enter the flight testing program.  This is huge news and it appears the hard work has figuratively and literally paid off as the Boeing workers in Charleston will be paid a nice bonus in a few days for bringing down the JBS from about 8,000.  It will now be up to Boeing's managers to make sure that the JBS doesn't become unmanageable while the production rate steadies at 10/month.


Lastly, some of you have noticed that ZA436 (LN 151, B-2738) for Hainan has been flying a lot out of Boeing Field in Seattle.  While I do not have confirmation, I suspect that this aircraft is performing flight and certification tests on the revised software for the 787 in order to reduce the number of false warnings and improve flight dispatch reliability through out the 787 fleet.  Some earlier testing was done on the 787-9 but it does appear that Boeing is doing these tests on a production standard aircraft.  The fact that the airplane is flying out of Boeing Field where Boeing Test Flight is based lends some more credence to my theory.




Full 787 List

Current 787 Production List

Delivered 787 List

787 Monthly Delivery Tracking

787 Customer Delivery

787-9 Flight Test Hours

Current 787 Operators

Projected 2014 787 Deliveries